skip to main content

Two Cents: Are We Headed for a Depression?

7 minutes 2 seconds
Video Player is loading.
Current Time 0:00
Duration 0:00
Loaded: 0%
Stream Type LIVE
Remaining Time 0:00
 
1x
  • Chapters
  • descriptions off, selected
  • captions off, selected

      Well, hello again!

      (Describer) In 2020.

      To be honest, I sort of feel like one of those ridiculous weather forecasters standing on the dock as a hurricane whips through. Yes, economic numbers are bad. Yes, it's likely to get worse before it gets better. At this point, the likelihood we're headed into a recession is basically a given. Why aren't we there already? Because a recession is generally described as a period of two consecutive quarters when GDP goes down. Simply put, too little time has passed to make it official. There have been 33 recessions in the U.S. since 1854, with four occurring after 1980. So, while they're not a whole lot of fun, they are a pretty normal part of the business cycle. But lately, you may have heard another word floating around: depression.

      [pounding, groaning]

      Okay, okay, before we start freaking out, let's get a clear picture of what a depression actually looks like and see what history has to teach us about softening the blow.

      [whimsical music]

      (Describer) In an animation, a piggy bank walks on top of dollar bills. A woman and man each appear on a penny. Above them, title: Two Cents.

      [coins jangling]

      Let's start with the text-book definition of what an economic depression is. Ha! I tricked ya-- there actually isn't one! The National Bureau of Economic Research is responsible for officially declaring the start or stop of a recession. But neither they nor any other agency declares a depression. It's just considered a longer, more dramatic form of recession. How long, and how dramatic? Depends on who you ask. But one popular definition requires a drop in GDP of over 10%, or a duration longer than two years to really be called a depression. There are some pretty striking similarities between the 1930s and 2020. For example, at the peak of the Great Depression, unemployment rates hovered around 24.9%, and those who kept their jobs saw their salaries cut and hours reduced. As of late May, unemployment in the U.S. is hovering close to 28%, according to the U6 rate covering the broadest definition of unemployment. There's also a clear uptick in behaviors linked with self-sufficiency. You don't have to scroll far to see a picture of a home-baked bread or newly planted veggie garden. Philip is pickling everything in sight, and I feel I have finally achieved the level of a Sourdough Sensei. My meemaw learned the same lessons from the Great Depression. She was famous for her budget-stretching "surprise" casseroles that let nothing go to waste. But unlike in my house, she purposely never had fresh bread, always frozen, since there was no risk of it going to waste. Didn't seem to slow her down, though. She lived to the ripe old age of 99. On the eve of World War II, many feared our nation would be plunged into a second, deeper financial crisis. But instead, the following decades turned out to be an era of unprecedented prosperity. How was that achieved?

      (host 1) First: Government spending. President Roosevelt's New Deal used federal funds to put millions of unemployed people back to work building the nation's bridges, roads, parks, and cities, and subsidized home ownership through the creation of the Federal Housing Administration. And in order to meet the needs of the war effort, the government bought vast amounts of military supplies from private companies and heavily invested in domestic manufacturing. This double-injection of funds from the government is widely credited with lessening the length and severity of the Great Depression. Upon returning from the war, millions of service members utilized the G.I. Bill to attend college, helping to essentially create a true middle class in America. Compared to these massive projects, the CARES Act, while a necessary first step, is only a fraction of what could be done in the future. Second: Devaluing our currency. Yes, you heard that right. Weird as it may sound, devaluing the dollar played a big role in getting us out of the last mess. By breaking the strict tie of dollars to gold, the government could freely print loads of new dollars that were worth less. Between 1933 and 1937, the money supply increased 42%. In his book "Lords of Finance," Liaquat Ahamed observed, "Most economists now agree "90% of the reason the U.S. got out of the Great Depression was the break with gold." We've already begun the devaluing process in response to the pandemic, by the Fed creating hundreds of billions of new dollars in March, thus lowering the value of the dollar. Why does this help? Simply put, a country with a weaker currency will be more competitive in global markets. Though, there are downsides, like ticking off your trading partners. Many countries have recently taken issue with China manipulating their currency to gain a trade advantage. But if you do this too much, you risk creating hyper-inflation, though experts uniformly agree we're nowhere close to that happening in the U.S. A third factor in turning the tide of the Depression was technological and business innovation. Even in the depths of a financial crisis, new innovators emerge-- sort of like new seedlings sprouting after a forest fire. Obviously, this is no justification for the destruction COVID is wreaking, but historically, temporary downturns have accelerated breakthroughs. The period between 1929 and 1941 is widely considered the most technologically progressive of the 20th century. We might look back at this as a time when remote learning and telecommunications took a huge leap forward. A fourth strategy was one not used by government agencies or big business, but ordinary citizens: Thriftiness. I think its best summed up in the Depression-era mantra, "Use it up, wear it out, make do, or do without." This is a stark contrast to our modern, First-World, throwaway culture of replacing cars, phones, and computers every couple of years. In the '30s, blue and white-collar families alike kept community thrift gardens whenever possible. They mended their own clothing long before considering buying something new, and opted to play card and board games over more expensive entertainment. And for those unable to make ends meet, the use of government welfare programs became so normalized that much of the social stigma fell away. Things might feel really grim right now. But there is power to change the course of the future, and it lies in the hands of governments, companies, and even individual citizens. Only time will tell how we'll look on the other side of this, but history shows us that we get to play some part in how this story ends.

      (both) And that's our Two Cents!

      Transcript Options


      Now Playing As: English with English captions (change)

      COVID severely impacted the economy. It also brought worries of an impending depression. Part of the "Two Cents" series.

      Media Details

      Runtime: 7 minutes 2 seconds

      Looking very serious, a woman stands next to a man, explaining something to us.
      Two Cents
      Season 1 / Ep 14
      4 minutes 44 seconds
      Grade Level: 7 - 12
      Man speaks to us while gesturing with his hands, standing before a blue lace-like patterned digital background.
      Two Cents
      Season 1 / Ep 31
      5 minutes 59 seconds
      Grade Level: 7 - 12
      Stack of papers sits on top of a wood surface. The top document titled, "The Wizard (Lawyer)" shows a long-haired character with pointy ears, holding a staff, next to text that describes their character.
      Two Cents
      Season 1 / Ep 33
      4 minutes 26 seconds
      Grade Level: 7 - 12
      Digital art. A hand holding cash reaches out towards an old man and woman smiling and looking at the cash.
      Two Cents
      Season 1 / Ep 35
      5 minutes 41 seconds
      Grade Level: 7 - 12
      Man wearing a chef's uniform stands in front of a red food truck decorated with hot dogs with a worker standing at the order window. Next to him is a label that reads, 25%.
      Two Cents
      Season 2 / Ep 12
      6 minutes 26 seconds
      Grade Level: 7 - 12
      Woman explains a photo next to her depicting a civil rights protest. In the photo is a crowd of people holding hands, marching, and holding signs. One sign says, “End segregated rules in public schools.” Another says, “We demand voting rights now!” Another says, “Jobs for all now!”
      Two Cents
      Season 2 / Ep 13
      7 minutes 37 seconds
      Grade Level: 7 - 12
      Infographic shows a cartoon man on vacation looking over at a set of numbers under the header "Compound interest calculator." The infographic identifies an annual addition of $4,420, a 7% interest rate, and a resulting $25,891 after ten years.
      Two Cents
      Season 2 / Ep 18
      7 minutes 8 seconds
      Grade Level: 7 - 12
      Mustachioed man wearing a zip-up hoodie talks to us, while on the right a cool dude wearing sunglasses, braces, and a lei points at himself with thumbs up.
      Two Cents
      Season 2 / Ep 20
      6 minutes 30 seconds
      Grade Level: 7 - 12
      Man speaks to us while gesturing with his hands, standing before a blue crosshatch-patterned digital background.
      Two Cents
      Season 2 / Ep 21
      6 minutes 7 seconds
      Grade Level: 7 - 12
      Infographic shows a nervous emoji with one thought cloud that says "Sell! Sell! Sell!" and another thought cloud that contains the symbols of Bitcoin and Tesla. Arrow leads from the emoji to the label "10 years."
      Two Cents
      Season 2 / Ep 22
      5 minutes 39 seconds
      Grade Level: 7 - 12